So much volume, did these big guys got some insider news about some order win which is yet to be made public ?
@raj1968 sir, any update from you end from the petrowatch website ?
I have no new information. Alphageo generally announces business updates including new order win along with the quarterly results. Let us wait for Q2 result to be published.
When we met the management post AGM in their new office, they confirmed that they have started bidding and quite a few tenders are out. However, the size of tenders are much smaller.
As far as the price movement and volume of the stock are concerned, seems market perception about the company is changing, there is no significant business change though in my view.
Regards,
Raj
Disc: Holding since more than an year.
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Market perception must be changing after it was choosen as CNBC aawaz jackpot share.Now oil is trading above 64$ā¦ if it stays here for few more months. They should surely be able to win some order outside india too.
Any updates on bid submitted for mineral exploration ??
Disclosure : holding .1% in the company
They were L1 but the second bidder has gone to court. So it might take longer.
By the way the value of the tender will be hardly 2-3% of the current order book, so impact on performance will be negligible.
Regards,
Raj
Disc: Invested since more than a year.
They have not mention by when they have to complete the order. Good to see the order inflow have started again after long time. so 3D order this timeā¦ Waiting for them to announce some updates on orders for aerial and mineral exploration
They have not mention by when they have to complete the order. Good to see
the order inflow have started again after long time. so 3D order this
timeā¦ Waiting for them to announce some updates on orders for aerial and
mineral exploration
These orders do suggest a broader recovery of drilling activities that were subdued for a while. It is an interesting trend to catch early on - since many companies linked to E&P activities have a lot of operating and financial leverage.
Best
Bheeshma
Disc - invested in aban.
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normally seismic activity lasts between nov-aug, ONGC plans the orders accordingly. in my view they should be able to complete this by sept 2018. also they might have planned some buffer crew to execute these additional orders. this work being in gujrat should be easy for them to execute.
most importantly order flow has begun, its good news.
key monitorables
tenders for international markets. raising crude prices will accelerate this
aerial geophysical tender finalization
more domestic orders -- fresh tenders and some possible diversion of current orders from competition
Disc : Holding > 5%
Is it a follow up order for the 2d seismic work they are doing? if so there are high chances of they getting multiple 3D seismic order in next few years?
Alphageo Q2 result are out.
Some positives from result press release:
- In my view the result was better than what was expected as losses were very minimal.
- Receivables are down significantly from 160Cr to 54Cr.
- Borrowings also down from 47Cr to 15Cr.
- Company has 46cr cash available compared to 21Cr as on 31st March.
- They have formed to JV to get shallow water survey(this is as per management guidance when we met them)
Reagards,
Raj
Disc: Invested and biased. No trading in last 6 months.
6 Likes
Thanks Raj for Update. Why was there expectation of loss?
Itās the nature of business. They survey is not done during monsoon every year, hence you will always see July-Sept quite low in sales.
Since they have hired quite a few people, I was expecting they might have to pay similar salaries in Q2 as they paid in Q1. It seems they have hired a lot of temporary workers and hence salary bill was much lower,
Hope this clarifies.
Regards,
Raj
3 Likes
Yes. Thanks. Survey and survey related expenditure is 5 times YOY and 1/5 QOQ. Also depreciation is higher.
Hi Raj,
Could you please let us know more about shallow water/transition zone geophysical services. What is the current opportunity size in india? who is the technical partnerā¦Have they already applied in the tender by ongc or they are expecting a tender from ongc for which they can apply using this JV?
the previous 1400 cr order is part of NSP whereas this 152 cr order is outside NSP form an existing production field. so we keep getting such small orders outside NSP. production fields also require survey data to analyze where deposits could be.
Transitioning zone is more risky as they donāt have control on environment and also deal with fishermenās activity. but they trade off the risk with higher margins. they mentioned in the press note they have participated in the tender. we donāt know about the size of the tender. regarding opportunity size, actually what is important is know the managements willingness to participate in this activity given the risks. in my view technical partner plays a major role. management is always cautious in exploring newer lines of business. I am not expecting much from this and geophysical surveys, but it will open up multiple revenue streams
given the balance strength and cashflows from the big order, mgmt. is slowing exploring newer lines of business. this is really good news. also recent crude oil price raise will help the international business
Disc : holding > 5%
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@bandlab1 Thanks a lot Bala for explaining the details. Looks like we headed for better times, but market still have to recognize it.
the below link might help in understanding. Also googling can throw many good articles/videos.
http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/Terms/t/transition_zone.aspx
They havenāt revealed it as yet. You can call their CS and ask about it.
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Thanks Raj and bala for your explanation.
The results are definitely better than expectedā¦To be honest, Sept quarter has always been the worst for the company because of monsoonā¦While comparing YoY Sept results, the only drag was depreciation expense; but this is in line with the previous three quartersā¦The highlight for me was the balance sheet improvementā¦i guess good times ahead
Disclosure : Not invested; but now getting inerested