Aksh Optifibre fundamental analysis

(Mehnazfatima) #141

After the death of DK jain, there is a dispute going on in the jain family and matter has even reached the Delhi High court…and now we find that DK jains wife, Usha jain has sold almost half of her holding in aksh…I can try and speculate on the various scenarios leading to this…

  1. Usha jain is just simply selling Aksh…

If its a case of simply selling such a huge quantity of shares by a person who was connected with Aksh from a very long time…then the stock price of Aksh would have crashed. And why would she sell shares of Aksh now, when it seems to be performing well and is about to take off…The jain family is quite well versed with business and stock market affairs…so they would not do any distress selling at such low price levels.

  1. Its a structured sale with a pre arranged buyer

the way the high trade volumes are generated by the two Ahmedabad and Bombay based firms on the day that usha jain sells her shares indicates that the high volumes are just to mask the sale of shares by Usha jain. And since it involves market manipulation, it would mean not just manipulation of volume but even manipulation of price too…i am informed that usually in such cases, the seller receives quite a good amount in cash in addition to the selling price as transacted at the stock exchanges.

  1. It is without the knowledge of the promoters…

some one is not only buying the shares sold by usha Jain now but has been continuously buying Aksh shares throughout the last one year…this is reflected in the high volumes and delivery percentage in Aksh…the trading pattern clearly pointed out to huge accumulation…can such a person keep buying such big amounts without the knowledge and concurrence of the promoters…

Usha jain holds almost 12% of the aksh equity…anyone buying from Usha Jain and from the open market would have a holding percentage more than the share of the first promoter group of the Chaudhrys.

If this is without the concurrence of promoters, then why are the promoters not taking any action to protect their holding on the company.

On the contrary we find that the promoters have diluted equity by issuing 1.1 crores shares through FCCB. Why does a low debt, cash generating company need to issue FCCB for such a small amout of 17-18 crores.The quantum of FCCBs and timing indicate that the FCCBs were issued only to enable some party to acquire those shares on behalf of the promoters.

All the above point to the role of promoters in jacking up their holding in Aksh by buying the shares of Usha jain and also those that got converted through FCCBs.

In case it turns out that the promoters are so incompetent that they still do not know that some hostile party is takingover their company, then it may sooner or later lead to a bidding war between both the parties. But I find it very unlikely, given the market savy promoters belonging to the other branch - The Fulchands. The Fulchands are very seasoned businessmen from Bombay…they have a good holding in kewal kiran …have a garment export business and also some real estate ventures…recently, the Fulchands ave acquired the unlisted company of Dr Kailash Chaudhry- Bharat Towers.

Most probably, it appears that the Fulchands are the ones who are actually increasing their stake in Aksh.

(aashish2137) #142

The last raises more questions than it answers. Even if Jain family is offloading their stake in a pre-structured deal, why doesn’t the company make this development public? If the current promoters are themselves raising their stake, aren’t they supposed to make a declaration to that effect?

On an unrelated note, is Mehnazfatima ‘faith and hope’ on MMB? I saw the exact same msg there today.

(Mehnazfatima) #143

Yes…my id on MMB is Faith and Hope.

Last time when the promoters failed to make disclosures regarding sale of shares, Sebi had levied a fine on the promoters but the same was set aside by the appellate tribunal.

This time, Usha jain is not listed as the promoter. So promoters cannot file a declaration on her behalf. It will be reflected in the share holding patter statement filed by Aksh…eventually…but by that time market would already have acted / reacted to this development.

And suppose, the promoters are not the ones who are accumulating the shares…then are the market rumours about takeover of Aksh correct? in such a scenario, I expect a bidding war to breakout and the stock price to rise hugely.

But the way the share sale by Usha jain is going on smoothly, indicates to me that all the stakeholders are in the loop on this issue.

we will have to wait till some declaration is made either by the promoters or by Usha Jain or by the buyer…or bring this matter to notice of SEBI…

(ramanapakam) #144

Hi Manider,

Aksh is working Majerly with Rajasthan govt.

I foud some thing about Aksh from CBC news channel.

(Macha) #145

I think it’s already posted by someone in this thread earlier.
Appreciate mehnaz’s continuous feedback and technical follow up .onw need to have full conviction for holding any stock for longer period of time and should avoid day to day price moment discussions

(aashish2137) #146

Number of shares held by promoter group hasn’t changed between Jun Qtr vis a vis Sep Qtr. So who is buying Usha Jain’s stake?

Super edit: looks like the share was picked up by institutional and retailer buyers equally. A good sign that the market is happy buying Aksh at current prices?

(dr sunil t deshmukh) #147

VAST knowledge …hats off

(Manish) #148

Usha Jain’s share holding In June quarter was 12.41 % which has dramatically come down to 7.03 % ie. sold 5.38% out of which 1.08% is bought by " Globe Capiltal Market Ltd " … but the major portion bought by whom is yet unknown ?? Must be some deep pocket Guys … retail will not buy this much quantity of shares …
And Usha Jain has surely sold more from beginning of October too !!!

(Mehnazfatima) #149

As per the shareholding pattern filed by the company…between june 2016 and end of sept 2016, Usha jain had sold 87,50.000 shares. And on 5th Oct 2016 Usha jain sold 64,00,000 shares. That takes the total sale by Usha jain to 1.51crore shares. It appears that Usha jain will be selling her total stake in Aksh of around 2.1 crore shares.

(weblinsolutions) #150

As per the latest disclosure today, Usha Jain has less than 3% stake in the company now. It seem she is completely exiting Aksh but we still don’t know who purchased the big chunk.

Disclosure: Not invested. Tracking.

(Mehnazfatima) #151

Arpitji: i did not reply to this query earlier because it would have meant a lot of discussion on technical analysis of stocks other than Aksh Optifibre.

Perhaps now you would agree that the optical fibre makes which were bullish earlier have now started to rally at the same time…just have a look at Vindhya telelinks, Sterlite technologies…

When all the stocks in a sector start going up at the same time, as per Besant Maheshwari, it means that there is a turnaround in the sector as a whole.

Now even Aksh which has risen by around 50% in s short period is poised for further quick gains…

Feels good to be right…good to be both right and invested…

(arvind) #152

You are right Mehnaz the sector seems to be in focus …in fact i heard someone recommending Sterlite on TV. I think Usha Jain is spoiling the Rally in Aksh till now :(. I hope she will stop easy supply soon and it will take off.

(Manish) #153

Last many days there has been good delivery based buying going on … with good volumes , Around 50% is deliverable quantity … some one is just keeping on cornering with not much of price action !

Though Usha jain is selling heavily there is not a huge drop in prices, infact the assumption earlier that there is been share transfer with the knowledge of promoters is getting stronger IMHO ! and if someone is buying in huge chunk at this current price means that this should be the base price now for a long time (20-23)… and this consolidation will create a nice base going ahead and we may see the price momentum when the offloading is done … meanwhile yes the sector in whole is seeing momentum !

Results are on 11th November , hoping for an end of consolidation and pre result rally by then !

(Manish) #154

Surprisingly last night we were discussing… and today morning was a Gap up opening with Huge volumes on both the exchanges…
Any particular reason, I could not find any news or Announcement…
if anyone knows pls update…

And the delivery based volume again today suggest Hopefully Usha Jain exited fully :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

(atulcp) #155

Aksh Opti yearly high today…

Thanks Mehnaz ji for sharing your fundamental and technical study on this thread…


ICICI Direct buy report on Ster Tech


(Meetesh) #157

Aksh completes acquisition of unitape.

(Meetesh) #158


(Meetesh) #159

While the announcement states that they have acquired the shares at 9.35 per share it doesn’t state the no of shares acquired. So for a co with a topline of 3cr we do not not the cost of acquisition.

(weblinsolutions) #160

How can we verify that this company [Unitape] is a genuine company working in FRP sector from last 3 years?