Aksh Optifibre- A Technical and Fundamental Analysis


(dr sunil t deshmukh) #81

i tried to analyse it with gann angles on monthly chart resistance at 27.9 if overcome then …


(Meetesh) #82

After successful relentless backward integration, the company moved its step towards forward integration. In 2002, Aksh started its first FTTH in Jaipur and later collaborated with MTNL and BSNL in 2010 to launch its first FTTH project in Jaipur. Similar projects have been started in Delhi and Mumbai in collaboration with MTNL and in Ajmer, Faridabad and Gurgaon in collaboration with BSNL.

So Delhi and Mumbai chosen as test centres by jio already has ftth by Aksh. I think this would be a big advantage for Aksh


(weblinsolutions) #83

Strong downfall in the price from last 2 days. Reduce in promoter holding and profit booking from retail investors seems to be the cause. I hope all the doubts will cleared in the AGM on 24th.


(Mehnazfatima) #84

Are you attending the AGM


(weblinsolutions) #85

No, I’m not. I’m sure we will get some information from research bytes or any member here.


(Mehnazfatima) #86

Today there is no report of bulk selling by Usha jain …its just one Ahmedabad bssed operator Purity Trademax buying and selling 11.45 lakh shares…just creating trade volume.


(NAVNEET KUMAR) #87

@Mehnazfatima any idea why Usha Jain selling? and who is buying??


(Manish) #88

Respected Dr. Sunil,

Since i am not good at Technical and This chart looks very fascinating to me,
great work done by you … how many years data is this ??
Could you please elaborate what are you trying to say ,
so that beginner like me understands what in-store for Us …

Please fill in the gap you left … 27.9 if overcome then …

Regards,
Manish.


(Mehnazfatima) #89

One of the tests suggested by Besant Maheshwari about a sector getting rerated is that almost all the stocks from that sector start going up…in the case of Optical fibre manufacturers too almost all the companies have turned bullish at the same time…the momentum indicators of Sterlite, Vindhya, Birla Ericsson and Aksh have all turned up at the same time…this has two implications for investors-

  1. Those who have doubts about Aksh but are bullish about the prospects of the Optical fibre sector can also make good gains by investing in any of the other three big optical fibre makers…

  2. Those who are invested in Aksh but are unnerved by its volatility and more particularly by the steep fall in the last 2 trading sessions may find assurance from the fact that since the sector is getting rerated, this time Aksh may not go down to 14-15 levels but may find support around 20 rupees and then may start rallying again.

since this is a thread on Aksh, I am not posting the charts of Vindhya, Birla ericsson and Sterlite tech…I guess, you will have to take my word when I say that all the 3 have turned bullish (technically)

Investors may recall that a similar thing had happened in sugar sector…almost all the sugar stocks (barring Bajaj hind) have gone up significantly from their lows when the whole sugar sector got rerated…irrespective of the quality of their management… In electrical cables, chemicals and dye makers and speciality chemcals too there was a similar pattern …earlier we saw it in textiles and auto ancillaries…before that it was pharma and fmcg…

As long as we get the sector and time correctly…individual stock selection becomes secondary…unless you select the most debt laden and loss making company from that sector

hoping that a similar thing happens in optical fibre sector too…


(Meetesh) #90

In the sugar sector we observed that stocks like ugar gave a disproportionate returns compared to leaders like Balrampur and Dhampur.

Similarly I feel that a stock like Aksh which has been a lagard for almost 16 yrs since listing can give a disproportionately high return compared to other stocks like Sterlite.

Aksh is a pure play optic fibre company with a market cap around 400cr. A lot.of mutual funds have a mandate to buy shares of companies with a minimum mkt cap of 500cr. So one can expect a lot more traction in the share price once the mkt cap goes beyond 500cr.


(Mehnazfatima) #91

Meetesh: what i dont like about Birla ericsson and Vindhya is the somnolent management…just at a time when Aksh Optifibre was enbarking on aggressive capacity expansion, the Annual report of Birla was talking about there being excess capacity in the sector.

And now that there is explosion of demand for optical fibres and prices of optical fibres have risen by 30%…only Aksh is geared to meet this demand. Vindhya and Birla have been caught sleeping in face of such exiting developments in their backyard. Perhaps its the after effect of Birla - Lodha dispute over the will of Priyamvada Birla.


(dr sunil t deshmukh) #92

118 time period 2018


(Mehnazfatima) #93

Srei infra has a vertical Srei sahaj which they are valuing around 2000 crores. It consists of around 40000 e kiosks.

Aksh optifibre too will have around 10000 e kiosks by the end of this year. Using the valuation metric of Srei sahaj, the e kiosks business vertical of Aksh itself will have a minimum valuation of 250 - 300 crores. Thats as much as the present marketcap of the whole of Aksh.

In a year or two, when the IPO frenzy hits india, such verticals will take Aksh higher and higher…


(MHS) #94

@Mehnazfatima

Some quick and naive queries on this story:

1: Have been working overseas last decade in Middle East and Asia Pacific - using wifi earlier for first 5 years and later using smart phone last 5 years and using sim based internet packages instead wifi - my observation majority of smart devices using sim based Internet - earlier 2G, 3G and now 4G.

2: Not sure on this - I assume throughout or may be most part of India - fibre optic cables are laid for Telecom sector during earlier hey days of Bharti and when Reliance (now part of ADAG) entered into market around 2006 to 2008.

In view of the above
a) especially point 1, what makes to think different that fibre optic cable industry have EXPLOSIVE growth??? my understanding is most folks use mobile internet through sims. Request People working in Europe and US please confirm …

b) Is still lot of fibre optical cables to be laid out for wifi services in this country for industries, Offices, government bodies…


(Mehnazfatima) #95

I suggest that you read the annual report of Aksh and also of Sterlite technologies…they have explained in detail about the developments that are driving growth of demand for optical fibre .


(Alphin) #96

The simple explanation is that WiFi and 3g 4g can be used only for a limited area of covergare and for transmission point ( tower) till consumer.

Any other transmission ie from internet comapny to tower has to be done by Optic fibre (ofc) only. There is no other technology available that can provide such reliability and bandwidth such as ofc. Now as 4g penetration and internet penetration increases all these ofc have to be laid in the backend for providing internet to remote areas and for increasing the bandwidth.

Hence explosive growth fro ofc.

Not invested in Aksh.


(MHS) #97

@Mehnazfatima @Alphin
Thank q - will go throug and study in detail.

One more worry/risk is huge investments required in this for infrastructure development where lot parties involved from Governments - center and state - for policy and land - Telecom operators - Equipment vendors and finally fibre optic cable guys - Is this story sustenaible like Consumer, IT and Pharma way or the way like infra and power sector companies way.


(Meetesh) #98

http://m.thehindubusinessline.com/info-tech/idea-to-roll-out-its-own-tv-chat-video-service/article9124964.ece


(Manish) #99

Aksh Optifibre Ltd has informed BSE that Mr. Narendra Kumbhat, has resigned from the position of Independent Director of the Company with effect from September 19, 2016, due to personal reasons.

what would be the effect of this news on the company … ?


(Meetesh) #100

As per LinkedIn his specialities were in reviving sick companies and in raising large funds for projects. I guess since Aksh is doing pretty good now and their capex is also completed he might have wanted to use his expertise in other companies.
Thats my best assumption.