Aksh Optifibre- A Technical and Fundamental Analysis


(gardathedust) #246

The company has finally announced consolidated results for FY 2017. Also for Q2 Sep.
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachHis/badc9bf2-5fa8-46b3-a838-0ff789e2375d.pdf

But still no annual report, no cashflow statement. Can this be treated as a positive ?


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #247

@Mehnazfatima Do you have any exit level in mind to liquidate? Already it has appreciated 3 times from the entry level and crossed Rs 40 today.


(Mehnazfatima) #248

I have stayed invested in Aksh through the bad times when high raw material prices impacted profitability. If good times are just round the corner, I would be reluctant to sell prematurely.


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #249

Yeah technically too it seems accumulation is still going on and no signs of distributions. Big operators may enter after it comes out of T2T and take it much higher if fundamentals are supportive.


(jstocks) #250

Hi Mehnza,

Any idea why promoter stake has decreased in this stock?

Thanks


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #251

It seems the company’s fundamentals are taking a turn for the better. Special coverage in Business Standard today.

Disc. Invested from lower levels. Views are definitely biased.

Quotes from the article as it is subscription based and not available in open.

Aksh


([email protected]) #253

hi @maverickroger had a look at the NPM for the H1 2018 and it is around 3.2% (Q2 - 3.5 % and Q1 - 2.7%)
Can you please let me know your analysis onhow can Aksh achieve NPM of 8% from here on which is quite significant from their current NPM.
Many thanks.

Thanks,
Pandi


(ramanhp) #254

Very informative and interesting note. Is it ok that I share it on a wats app group?


(rknshah) #255

Any one tracks Vindhya in the same space , Thanks.


(insanemaverick) #257

@pandi.rao: That’s pretty elementary stuff actually. When a company is executing it’s capex, the expenses tend to be booked upfront and the margins look suppressed. Once the commissioning is done, you benefit from the operating leverage and economies of scale which bumps up the margins. Also, it is an integrated player with substantial FRP facility. So 8% margins is a reasonable number for FY19 and FY20.

@ramanhp: Sure Sir, please go ahead. We all live, grow and learn together.


(Bheeshma Sanghani) #258

Hi @maverickroger

Sincere request if you could remove the many references to price action in your post. As you are aware its not in line with the rules of the forum.

With Regards
Bheeshma


([email protected]) #259

@maverickroger Thanks for the details on the rationale on the NPM, I am new to value investing and your details helped me to understand the reason behind the potential expansion of NPM.


(spachiap) #260

I am intrigued that Aksh is venturing into an adjacency market of making of Lens glasses. If they have a big market in cables, why this diversification, I wonder. It doesn’t look positive based on my initial reaction (maybe I am over reacting?). Any comments?

Also, Sterlite Technologies being an established leader appears a better bet than Aksh, but Aksh if they execute can become multiples.


(Manohar T. Patil) #261

Press release by Aksh post Q3 results -

They have commissioned the 100% increased capacity of optic fibre as well as optic fibre cable. Stock definitely has run up quite a bit. How much juice you guys think is still left in Aksh.

Disc- holding at Rs. 41 - less than 1% of PF


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #262

Hard to tell. There is nothing wrong with the company’s strategy. In fact, its spectacular. Its only the execution part that is crucial because past records of the company do not inspire much confidence. It is more a case of hope than of conviction.

Disc. Invested from Rs. 13 level. No immediate plans to liquidate. Views are definitely biased.


(ukdube) #263

Promoter holding gradually reduced to dangerously 27% from 30%.I would never touch such set up even with best business and verticals.


(Mehnazfatima) #264

Now after issue of warrants @42.50, the promoters holding is increased to 33.8%…its good to see promoters buying at a higher level than thr one at which they sold the stock.

As per the post Q3 press release, the mbgt says that the full capex has been successfully completed.The new capacity is much higher than previous manufacturing capacity


(PE_Ratio) #265

Answer to your question is in the press release itself. The expanded capacity must have been commissioned last month. This means, you will see better output in Q4. Also, it’s mentioned that the capacity expansion projects in China, Mauritius, and Silvassa are also on track. From Q4 onwards, we’ll get to see topline and bottomline steadily increasing.


(PE_Ratio) #266

Also, from the press release, it’s apparent that only the trial run of the ophthalmic lens has been going on. They are going to start the commercial production only from next month. It’s high margin business. Once it starts adding to the top line, we’ll see significant rise in the bottomline. To answer your question, yes, there is a lots of juice still left in Aksh. In fact, the journey has just started.


(Devaki Nandan Tripathy) #267

There is a big fallacy in this line of argument. What would a promoter do if he/she is in need of cash? Selling in market is always better than the promoter who swindles away money from company by creative accounting. Jeff Bezos has continuously trimmed his Amazon holdings in last two decades but that did not stop Amazon to appreciate 300 times in last one and half decade.

Ultimately its the underlying fundamentals that will decide the equity price.