Last month I calculated Accelya’s Intrinsic Value using DCF method. Fair value comes to 900. There will be interesting movement ahead as one can see small cap IT stocks are on joyride since last some days.
If yourquery is relatedto notfactored insale sodespite
Interesting read for IT sector investors
“The time to invest in India is now. This is like the 1997 was in Silicon Valleyajust before the big boom,” said Vivek Wadhwa, a vice president of research and innovation at Singularity University in the United States. Until the end of November, $ 1.3 billion (Rs 8,000 crore) of risk capital has been invested in Indian technology companies according to consultancy EY. While new entrants have made a splash, the rising buzz is led by the bold bets being taken by a few global venture funds that have had a ringside view of the sector for nearly a decade now.
My Q2FY14 (June'ending) estimate for AccelyaKale (Consolidated) is provided below :
( fig. In Rs. cr. ) Q2FY14e (Dec.'13) Q2FY13 (Dec.'12) Revenue 71.8 â 76.2 74.3 EBITDA 31.8 â 33.8 33.23 PAT 19.4 â 21.1 20.94
|
( fig. In Rs. cr. ) |
Q2FY14e (Dec.'13) |
Q2FY13 (Dec.'12) |
|
Revenue |
71.8 â 76.2 |
74.3 |
|
EBITDA |
31.8 â 33.8 |
33.23 |
|
PAT |
19.4 â 21.1 |
20.94 |
Mahesh,
More or less your estimates are flat. Will you keep holding for such performance / accumulate more or sell gradually ?
Kunal
Kunal…as I have said before too, FY14 is a testing fiscal for Accelya…it’s a transition period wherein a significant client is phased out…I would like to closely watch this period as otherwise story is compelling…rgdg. my holding, again as I have said before, I will sit tight till 880 at which level I might consider some profit booking…in case of a fall, I am willing to accumulate more…I don’t consider current rate as a price to sell my holding…however, I always monitor every development closely and reassess my view based on each development…so, kindly take your own call based on your assessment.
Rgds.
Accelya Group nominated forAir Transport News Awards, 2014 under the category ‘IT Company of the year’…SITA was the winner last year while Amaedus was the winner in 2012…
Rgds.
Accelya Group FY13 Consolidated Accounts are out yesterday....Now, we have the complete picture....providing updates below :
Accelya Group Consolidated :
|
( in Euro cr. ) |
FY13 |
FY12 |
FY11 |
FY10 |
FY09 |
FY08 |
|
Equity |
0.71 |
0.70 |
0.64 |
0.64 |
0.64 |
0.64 |
|
Total Debt |
3.22 |
4.49 |
7.35 |
6.63 |
6.78 |
6.78 |
|
External Debt |
0 |
1.49 |
2.68 |
4.24 |
4.45 |
4.72 |
|
CPEC |
3.22 |
2.97 |
2.53 |
2.39 |
2.16 |
1.86 |
|
Revenue |
10.07 |
8.93 |
5.55 |
5.23 |
5.63 |
5.34 |
|
EBITDA |
4.55 |
3.58 |
2.44 |
2.33 |
2.70 |
2.23 |
|
PAT |
(0.98) |
(0.44) |
1.04 |
(0.11) |
0.30 |
0.88 |
|
Employees |
2154 |
2167 |
585 |
608 |
609 |
660 |
|
Revenue per employee |
46793 |
41209 |
94871 |
86019 |
92446 |
80909 |
|
OCF |
3.79 |
2.33 |
1.49 |
1.77 |
2.25 |
0.23 |
AccelyaKale's contribution to Group in FY12 & FY13 :
|
India |
India |
|
|
Accelya Kale Solutions Ltd. ( FY13 ) |
Accelya Kale Solutions Ltd. ( FY12 ) |
|
|
Contribution to : |
||
|
Group's Revenue |
37 % |
33 % |
|
Group's Profits |
36 % |
23 % |
|
Group's Fixed Assets |
35 % |
36 % |
|
Group's Total Employees |
74 % |
74 % |
|
Revenue Per Employee (in INR cr.) |
0.19 |
0.14 |
|
EBITDA Margin |
42.90 % |
29.75 % |
|
OCF/Sales |
0.36 |
0.26 |
|
Dividend Payout Ratio |
100 % |
100 % |
|
Sales/Fixed Assets |
6.19 |
5.08 |
|
External Debt |
Negligible |
Negligible |
AccelyaKale's FY13 Annuity Revenues extracted from Group Accounts :
|
FY13 |
FY12 |
FY11 |
FY10 |
FY09 |
FY08 |
FY07 |
FY06 |
FY05 |
FY04 |
FY03 |
FY02 |
FY01 |
|
|
Airlines Segment (INR cr.) |
308.62 |
229.59 |
180.50 |
126.73 |
102.62 |
86.18 |
79.50 |
61.99 |
48.05 |
37.61 |
34.78 |
30.42 |
11.84 |
|
Annuity based (INR cr.) |
289.03 |
209.65 |
149.81 |
104.58 |
85.78 |
71.14 |
60.11 |
45.17 |
39.45 |
26.27 |
21.44 |
12.72 |
1.37 |
|
Employees |
1595 |
1602 |
1392 |
1403 |
1310 |
1260 |
810 |
759 |
660 |
359 |
311 |
250 |
126 |
|
YoY Gr. In Rev.- Airline |
36.16 % |
25.56 % |
42.43 % |
23.49 % |
19.07 % |
8.40 % |
28.24 % |
29.01 % |
27.75 % |
8.13 % |
14.33 % |
156.92 % |
25.55 % |
|
Annuity Contribution |
93.65 % |
91.31 % |
82.99 % |
82.52 % |
83.58 % |
82.54 % |
75.61 % |
72.86 % |
82.10 % |
69.84 % |
61.64 % |
41.81 % |
11.57 % |
|
Rev. Per Employee (INR Lacs) |
19.34 |
14.33 |
12.96 |
9.03 |
7.83 |
6.83 |
9.81 |
8.16 |
7.28 |
10.47 |
11.18 |
12.16 |
9.39 |
Key Takeaways from Accelya Group Consolidated Accounts :
(1) Series 4 CPECs were issued in FY13 which mature in 2041…To sum-up, all CPECs have maturity ranging from 2036-2041 and earn 7.75 % p.a.
(2) Series 2 & series 3 warrants were issued in FY13…Series 2 warrants were issued without any consideration…Terms & Conditions of the warrants were amended in July 2013 to suit the benefits of warrant holders in case of an exit event i.e. sell-off.
(3) Loans are totally paid off well ahead of due date which was January 2014…External Debt now stands nil.
(4) AccelyaKale is the main vehicle for group’s Asia, Middle East & Africa sales with almost 90 % of the group’s revenues from this region booked under AccelyaKale.
(5) Management confirms consideration of various options including complete sell-off in the Annual Accounts. Reproducing below the exact wordings taken from the FY13 Group AR :
"The company and its main shareholders have been considering in the past months their strategic alternatives. Those include the potential sale of the control of the company, the sale of certain assets of the company and the possible re-leveraging of the Group.
At this stage, no decision has been made, but there remains essentially two credible alternatives being on the one side the sale of the company shares to a third party and the re-leveraging of the Group. At this stage, none of these alternatives would result inthe company bearing material advisor fees."
Results declared…interim dividend of rs. 27 announced…
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Accelya_Kale_Solutions_Ltd_050214_Rst.pdf
Results on expected lines…good to see that impact of client loss is getting negated by new business momentum…positive for the long run…liberal dividend policy continues and is expected in future too as cash will be distributed before sell off which is confirmed by the parent in its AR…
Rgds.
Discl. - Hold
Mahesh,
Thanks for the regular updated esp on the parent Accelya. Not sure what is the meaning & interpretation for the first two points related to CPECs and warrants, if you can decipher for us.
The results are subdued but on expected lines. The big customer exit should have been completed in this quarter (need to confirm from mgmt), so going forward should hope for up trend. The key things to note are
Sustainability of revenues despite a big customer exit.
prudent capital allocation by distributing it to share holders when growth is muted (this will help in keeping the roE at healthy levels)
Thanks.
Bangkok Airways outsources critical financial processes to Accelya -
See more at: http://www.myiris.com/newsCentre/storyShow.php?fileR=20140304123727717&dir=2014/03/04#sthash.QyzoHT9T.dpuf
Some of the interesting states for AccelyaKale
Stock Returns of last
3m : -5%
6m : 29%
1yr : 118%
5yr : 2971% (CAGR 98% !!)
Also last 5yr EPS growth is CAGR 45%
Despite strong multifold return, AccelyaKale is trading below 14 PE today.(against industry avg of 21 PE)
Kunal
My Q3FY14 (Mar.14) estimates for Accelya Kale :
|
( fig. In Rs. cr. ) |
Q3FY14e (Mar.'14) |
Q3FY13 (Mar.'13) |
|
Revenue |
82.1 â 86.8 |
78.86 |
|
EBITDA |
35.1 â 36.5 |
35.92 |
|
PAT |
25.5 â 27.6 |
24.31 |
Indian IT companies might end up with a smaller share of a bigger pie as more IT contracts are being restructured if they are not cautious, warn analysts
Indian IT companies might end up with a smaller share of a bigger pie as more IT contracts are being restructured if they are not cautious, warn analysts.
)—
Demand for niche segment player increase as corporates now prefer to distribute IT fund to several companies - expert in respective area / technology
Niche players like IPsoft & LiquidHub eating into outsourcing pie of companies like HCL & Accenture - The Economic Times on Mobile
Interesting for small but niche players like Accelya Kale, RS software etc
http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Accelya_Kale_Solutions_Ltd_300414_Rst.pdf
If we exclude one-time revenue recognition due to termination of contract then topline of 74.58 cr. is slightly below the estimates…
Rgds.
Link: http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Accelya_Kale_Solutions_Ltd_300414_Rst.pdf http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Accelya_Kale_Solutions_Ltd_300414_Rst.pdf Link: http://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/corpfiling/AttachLive/Accelya_Kale_Solutions_Ltd_300414_Rst.pdf
That is the reason today stock is -5% bearish.
I have not taken any call after yesterday’s result.
It should provide attractive buying opportunity during few months.
Company has said in the clarification that the revenue recognition is on account of termination of contract by a major customer…Any idea who’s this customer and what would be the impact of this on the business going forward?
Hello valuepickrs,
Is the growth still there? Is the long term story still intact?
For last some quarter result have been flat…Last quarter, result was good because of one-time revenue recognition. what is the estimates of this quarter?
Have they added new clients? or have they launch any new product?
Price have corrected sharply recently…so good time to enter if fundamentals are good?
Regards,
vaibhav
