A portfolio powered by observations or is it?


(Darkwanderer79) #1

Background:
I come from a totally non-finance background despite an MBA, finance wasn’t my strongest cards. I have started my equity investment journey pretty late in life…(home loan emis demanded its share of “pound of flesh”). While the EMIs are still on, I have managed to start a portfolio of sorts after multiple attempts without any fundamental / technical analysis.

I have tried to build a portfolio by observing how consumer behaviour consumption has changed…My portfolio (current and future) is basically of 3 types

  1. Here & now: My core portfolio…
  2. Then & there: Businesses which will be in demand in the future…
  3. Want to have but can’t afford now: Self-explanatory…

Currently my PF is as follows

HERE AND NOW: riding upon the current consumption theme…(Confidence Petroleum & Graphite India being the outlier)
Jubilant Foods - 27%
V-Mart - 23%
D-Mart - 18%
Bajaj Finance - 15%
Confidence Petroleum - 8%
Graphite India - 6%

THEN AND THERE: The hypothesis being eco-friendly businesses like Yash and Cerebra will be in demand some time in the future so build a sizeable portfolio by the time “they come in demand”.
Fineotex - 1%…Aquastrike striking Gold at WHO will decide its existence in my portfolio
Kilpest - 1%…BlackBio subsidiary…play in the diagnostic reagents market
Cerebra - 1%
Yash Papers - 1%

WANT BUT CAN’T AFFORD
Reliance Industries - solely because of their burgeoning consumer-centric business (Jio, Retail et al)
Avanti Feeds - missed it’s Golden Run…don’t want to miss it again after its significant correction.

I want to do a SIP but given my limited resources…there are only 3 options…

  • Increase my core PF holdings (V-mart, Jubilant, D-Mart, Bajaj Finance)
  • Utilize the correction in the small-cap space to increase the share in the portfolio (Cerebra, Yash, Kilpest, Fineotex)
  • Enter Reliance Industries and Avanti Feeds.

My time frame is for a long term holding for at least 5 years or more before I reevaluate…at least that is the intent…

Any advice from you will be really appreciated.


(timedimpulse) #2

Hey, I have a background similar to yours. 30s with an MBA in Finance. I will leave most of the commentary to the more experienced but my strictly personal opinion is that for 5 yrs horizon your porftolio is broadly on the right track. Given your allocation, I am assuming your risk appetite is moderate, although yours is a growth portfolio.
We share the below interests:

  1. Confidence Petroleum - I have a 4% allocation at a buying price of 21. I expect it to be a compounder for your 5 yr horizon but keeping a close eye for deterioration in accounting and disclosure standards
  2. Fineotex Chemicals - I have more of a 15% allocation but due to the fact that my buying price is pretty low (30). Its a “speciality chemicals” company worth the title and even without Aquastrike, it has consumer stickiness in the textile business. Aquastrike will push its stagnant top line into orbit - although management is known to overcommit and they have a record with SEBI
  3. Avanti Feeds - I purchased a huge chunk pre-split during the correction. I believe the story will get sweeter, having seen shrimp consumption up close in US and Thailand, and given the unique geographical advantages of India, together with Avanti’s strengthening leadership position and huge cash pile. I believe it is fairly priced now, if one wants to take a position.

Disclaimer - I am biased towards my holdings and this is just a statement of personal opinion, not buy/sell recommendation.


(Darkwanderer79) #3

@timedimpulse thanks for the feedback.

My investment levels for Confidence has been staggered and started from the 30’s level. There hasn’t been any significant correction in the stock to topup with some more investments. Maybe I should just start a SIP for this.

Fineotex has corrected a lot over the year but I still want to wait till the elections before adding on.

Avanti I think I should prioritize in terms of investments…but will it still continue to drop in price???


(narasimharao) #4

Fineotex chemicals : please read the latest annual report . Lot of related party transactions which I didn’t liked at all…
Promoter increased paypack by 50% even though profit has not increased YOY
Leasing office premises on much above price to the company

And many more

Disc : invested from lower levels . Planning to quit


(Darkwanderer79) #5

Thanks for your valuable inputs…