NIFTY and Sensex at 52 week high and Small Cap and Mid Cap at 52 week low. Diversification is must.
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These predictions have exactly 50% chance of becoming true.
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Yiahā¦ but the 4th elliot corrective wave is coming for nasdaq , most probably in 2019ā¦
And it can be quite damagingā¦
There is bearish divergence everywhere in the fang stock charts and nasdaq, dji interestingly is lagging behind nasdaq composite and 100ā¦(its like our midcaps lagging behind the nifty or sensex)ā¦
So there could be one more rally in dji before these mentioned predictions comes trueā¦
And no surprises, indian market has the same positionā¦
The current midcap correction should look like shameā¦
I am actually planning to liquidate all my equities soonā¦
Disclaimerā¦ technical speculation and my beliefs only , no intentions of spreading fud at allā¦
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ok. got it. unfortunately I have nil knowledge of technical analysis.
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TCI is trading in such as tight range that it must be awaiting an event of some kind. It can break down a bit to get to next support, or breakout to new highs easily. Not sure. Did not study it since I follow Charts for the most partā¦
Hiteshbhaiās confidence is high based on his conviction and analysis, which is why I will add it to my radar.
KKP
Sectoral Rotationā¦Just that this time it is Large Cap VS Restā¦
Best is to form the FIBs to find out where it will stop, since usually the Fib numbers come true.
This means, we are currently very close to the Capitulation stage of the Investor Sentiment Cycle shared by @devaki.tripathy 
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It is very difficult to predict any cycle, especially if it is in the future 
I think we need to now focus on SIP strategies and build convictions about stocks. Any investment with less than 3 years horizon would be a gamble.
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If someone is thinking of liquidate everything now, IMHO that is like burning a house to fright a rat. The rat may eat 20-30%, but burning the house would be very costly though. Until Jan, I was sitting 80% equities, 20% cash. Iām fully invested and look forward to SIP without fail.
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i guess, you didnt get the undertoneā¦
i am expecting one more leg up in the midcaps and small caps to line in with the large cap market and solve the lagā¦
that is when i am planning to liquidateā¦
i do not want to be in any part of the global carnage in the equity market of 2019-2020ā¦
The problem with that statement is that in 2016, people said it would be 2017. In 2017, they said itās 2018. Today, theyāre saying it might be 2019-2020. Looks like even a market crash isnāt on time in India.
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Peter L. Bernstein āUnderstanding that we do not know the future is such a simple statement, but itās so important. Investors do better where risk management is a conscious part of the process. Maximizing return is a strategy that makes sense only in very specific circumstances. In general, survival is the only road to riches. Let me say that again: Survival is the only road to riches.ā
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I was looking at the divergence between Small index and Nifty since Demonetization Lows.
It seems all these index are in sync now. This may be the end or atleast slowdown in correction of Mid and Smallcaps.
Any Idea if Divergence of Bank Nifty could pose any risk to overall market sentiment ? Though I was looking at Bank Nifty data from Feb-2016 and it has always shown similar divergence from NIFTY-50.
Disco : Not a buy or sell recommendation. Just sharing my observation.
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I donāt think NIFTY Bank is a good index to be compared with the other broad market indices.
- HDFC Bank alone forms 36.22% of the index.
- Out of the stocks in the index, the top 3 form almost 66% of the index (HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank).
(Source)
Also, BFSI forms only 37.14% of NIFTY 50. So in essence, only about a third of NIFTY 50ās movements is explained by the movements in NIFTY Bank (Which isnāt such a great index to begin with).
(Source)
On a closing note, there has been a rush of funds to large caps because of the MF reclassification. A good part of that movement probably went to bluechips including and not limited to HDFC Bank. So, the divergence in NIFTY Bank could be explained by this, seeing as how HDFC Bank forms a chunk of that index.
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a purely technical view on the impending picture of the midcap indexā¦
All midcap stocks are up today. Is there any link b/w SEBI probe and mid cap stock prices??
I think there is something very curious going on in India that is causing all these disruptions. I suspect that everything from demonetisation, shell company crackdown, p-note crackdown, the LTCG tax to the current ASM crackdown that throttled liquidity should all be seen in the light of the upcoming elections.
Maybe a lot of the political funding money roundtrips via mauritius, rests in the small/midcaps between elections and what we attribute to election uncertainty may actually be liquidation of these assets to fund the campaigns. Humour me a bit and think what a ruling party would do if it knew the modus operandi and perhaps followed the same? All these steps would make it uncomfortable for the entities following these methods.
Am not saying that all small/midcaps are manipulated but a majority of them showing astronomical valuations/questionable businesses may actually be doing this. Please take it with a pinch of salt as I am just speculating.
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Seems a bit far fetched as the risk of collateral damage is also high for the ruling party, but who knows, we all have seen stranger thingsā¦
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