I used to wonder when I used to hear that most people loose money in the stock market…Now following this page has made me understand how easy it is to fall prey to the current fashionable view.
Just because cfo sold his stake and the promoter also ended up loosing 9% of his holding we have dumped the company as the basket case.
I m listing some points why i have started romancing the shares since it has fallen below 150…
Rarely u can find great companies at very low pe…
2…Its trying to establish itself in blockchain,even if there is 20% of succeeding in it…i will bet on it.
3…Entry barrier to what they specialize is huge.In next 2-3 years they will be almost in a monopoly status…I doubt any indian IT company can boast of such a thing…including our tcs or wipro…
4…Cfo sold his stake…thats past ,promoter lost his stake because of his pledging…ok that also history…We all make mistakes and from all his interviews it looks that he must be given one more chance to prove himself…
5.we r forgetting that the company paid huge taxes last year and there is no reason that it will not better it this year.
6.There is a huge chance that come feb 2019 he might announce a buyback and then the share prices have just one way that is up…
7…just because share has collapsed from 1000 to 120 ,we r just hating SV…its stupid…markets do go up and down…as an investor u must be aware of the same.
8…SV has told in annual report that 30% of the business is recurring in nature and I just love that…that itself is worth around 700 crores …
9.Till now i was always skeptical about his stake in media company,I think that worry is totally out of window now…
10.The best thing about this company is that its recession proof…its catering to medical world and that is the safest customer to bet on…I just love that idea.
I must end with one caution that its good to question the promoters in social media but we must not be so negative that he stop bothering about it.
SV has achieved a lot in a very short time,we never know we might be sitting on a jackpot,we just need to show some patience…
And thats the biggest mantra on the stock market.Bye.
Why? How can an investor be sure they will not cheat again?
What so radical change is going to happen in next three months that now he is facing margin calls and within next four months he will buy the company itself?
My personal opinion - Occasionally distressed companies are good investments provided that certain precautions are taken. First is strict stop loss which is not to be overriden at any cost. Second, market mood - a rerating is more likely during a bull market than bear market. Third, the knowledge that few investments would definitely turn sour and it is part of the trading process and not a failure on my part. I, as an investor, am not responsible for lack of competence and integrity by the management and it’s not my job to defend the management.
Disclosure: Occasionally take contra positions in some companies. Refrained from creating any position in 8k miles as the market seems to be less forgiving now than it was couple of quarters back, and the stock being LC continuously, there will be a problem to liquidate if stoploss is hit.
Cloud and blockchain is totally different field and why you thing that they can create monoploy but not others? Technical filed is never a monopoly in India as Indian companies are doing service work which can be build very easily as India has large pool of engineers… when you have so many corporate governance issues in a company and stock is continuously hitting LC since many days now how once can say it’s a good company to invest, maybe it could be good company in cloud but not a good company for investment and both may be not true … I doubt ps have vested Interest here to still saying it’s good company and I feel moderators should look into this, as I feel this is going too far now…
Disclaimer: not invested and not a plan I believe in protecting my capital is more important for me than.manking extraordinary returns…
this seems difficult to believe. an outsourcing company outsources to others ? I have worked long enough in the industry to know it does not happen that way at least materially except for possibly support functions. Who are these downstream outsourcers ? are they RPT ? what’s their core competence ? how are they chosen ? if outsourcing like this can lead a $ 1 mn productivity per employee, why aren’t others in the industry doing it ?
I’ve always believed that attrbution of probabilities is an important way to triangulate. I’ve seen this happen in plenty of companies - something looks too good to be true and without a solid explanation it seldom is true.
I m surprised but not shocked that Indian investors are taking 8k miles as another Indian software company.As far as i understand ,this is totally different than almost all Indian companies.
They r among top 35 partners to amazon and that too specialize in life science.
I will like to inform that out of those 35,I myself been client of 2 or 3 of their competitors for last 18 years and I have somewhat idea that none of them specialize in one particular industry.
If somebody is following 8kmiles for last 4 years,then he must be knowing that they r buying software companies which have hospital chains as their clients.And thats the biggest entry barrier.
SV is a smart chap ,he is swallowing these companies one by one and hence playing a risky game by borrowing constantly.The markets hate that and thats a hard fact which he is slowly coming to terms with.The bitter experience of last 12 months will take him a long way.
Blockchain is a new concept and I have done some study on the same,if it succeed than it beats all other Indian IT companies hands down.But surely it will take some time and can be a risky game for next 2-3 years.
I m not too worried of cfo encashing out as last major chunk of his was bought by DSP and they must have been quite comfortable of him reducing his stake.
Disclaimer…I picked up major chunk in 2015 june and then at Rs 500-600/- after the news that it has launched blockchain platform in feb.
Now since it has moved below 150…i m buying small doses of it again as these r tuff times and one has to be very cautious fully knowing that it can touch 70 to 80 bucks if not less…
Blockchain is an extremely processor intensive implementation and its not deployed on physical infrastructure. It requires specialised cloud infrastructure which costs a bomb to build out and maintain physically.
If you have the right blockchain implementation optimally configured and tied to an underlying cloud configuration, thats reusable, the business value it creates is enormous and product dependent hence the potential for monopoly.
Just the way microsoft tied their operating system to ms office and practically created a monopoly for both, even though both the products suites are fundamentally different.
8k miles software does not operate on a cost arbitrage model. Thats the fundamental difference between them and the IT services industry. So your ‘triangulation’ will be pretty much ‘square’ if you attempt it with 8k miles software.
Whenever an asset needs to be augmented or new created to target a new market or customer, there is a burst of capex spend in a short duration. Companies like 8k miles do not keep many employees on their payroll, hence such peak manpower needs are met by outsourcing specific and clearly defined projects.
8k miles core competence is building and deployment of home grown assets (look at the assets mentioned on their website) so compare 8k with product companies and not services companies.
Below is the revenue per employee for famous product companies
On Blockchain, IT cos. of various sizes have been advertising capabilities, publishing research and perspectives and have created dedicated sections / microsites.
If one takes the time to read Blockchain related literature from other cos., one will find that healthcare / patient health data is covered by many others.
There is no evidence yet to suggest that 8K will beat other cos. hands down. Their Blockchain site is very basic / sketchy and rather amateurish.
The intent here is to assess the level of competitive advantage that 8K’s Blockchain practice could give them, if at all, based on available information.
Your right there is no evidence yet that their block chain implementation will beat others hands down… They are far far from it. But their competence in cloud infrastructure coupled with hippa assets and a sticky customer base significantly increase the possibility of their block chain implementation to succeed better than their competition.
Most importantly services companies create product offerings to boost their services revenue. Cognizant, wipro and TCS have no inclination to build licensing revenue cause they are masters at cost arbitrage. Given a choice they would gladly implement 8ks product if its better suited and accepted by the market.
i am surprised you are comparing it to pure product companies. 8k does SI for AWS - i have seen enough and more of these companies to know that these kind of productivity numbers are not possible.
I could have understood a 10-20% difference but not a productivity that’s on par with the principal product seller itself. Management will always have a view on these that looks believable. Look at the type of people that 8k is hiring ? what are their salaries ? if their productivity is so high, who are the people driving this productivity ? what’s their backgrounds ? do some kicking of tyres. I I did and i have some serious concerns. I had raised similar issues in kitex, arrow greentech, liberty shoes
i will stop here - i had raised these flags earlier and still believe that there’s no satisfactory answer. Denial and endowment is one of the strongest biases.
@varadharajanr you need to raise these questions at the AGM or talk to someone in the company, get answers to your questions before passing judgement. Why dont you attempt a productive conversation with the delloitte partner or with the company cs/cfo. You may have seen enough and more of these companies, unfortunately your word alone is not a substitute for fact.
Btw, every product company does SI and thats to boost their product revenues.
What you’ve raised are not red flags but merely questions for which you have not pursued ‘satisfactory’ answers from the right sources.
The whole premise of your judgement is the underlying implicit assumption that the reported numbers are fake.
However intellectual and articulate your speculative discourse and that of many others on this board may sound, its still speculation!
@adminph2@manish962@basumallick I Believe this thread is going to become a platform for personal attacks. Lots of messages are not adding any value and thus increasing the thread length. Need better moderation till the time all the dust settles !
#siddhartadhamankar
“The interviewers, the media and public at large had already completed their trial and passed the ‘fraud’ judgement, and that was visible in the way bloomberg questioned him.”( Quote you)
There is no way SV can defend himself.There was nothing that indicated that he was the victim.He was more keen on creating an impression that he was a victim.
I have four questions for you
If he was honest and wanted to lay down all the cards, he should have done the analyst meet after March 18 results and 1QJune 18 results Someone who was doing the analyst meet every quarter suddenly discontinued it.That was the first indication that there was something wrong, he was afraid of facing scrutiny and he had a lot to hide.
When the secretarial audit says done 16.5 lac shares have been transferred from promoters quota, when he knew shares were being transferred he was duty bound to inform SEBI and stock changes.He did not do until Sep’18 as he wanted to try his best to amicably settle the issue with brokers.His integrity is bound to be questioned.
In none of the interviews he has upfront stated how much money did he borrow from the brokers and used it for what.He has sought to paint a picture of he being a victim from whose a/c shares have been" illegally,without his knowledge… "taken away and his desire to ensure that other promoters are not cheated… Sounds extremely hollow.
4)He did not disclose to stock exchanges the charge of his ex auditor resigning from the media co.and he having accussed the co of forging his signature.That was a big charge where the listed company’s CFO was the majority promoter,and his role in forgery stood out directly and indirectly.That was a material development which was sought to be brushed under the carpet to ensure that the market doesn’t get to know.
His conduct has left none in doubt that there is a serious attempt being made to kill transparency in conduct and ensure that investors are not provided the correct picture.
He is not going to escape from further probes by the regulators.He may repeatedly attempt to paint himself as a victim, but that is not going to help him.
It is almost a one man company and and any further action against him by regulators is bound to affect the performance.
My views: Let us invert the whole proposition and for once assume the stock rebounds in future. For that to happen, large institutional buying along with retail interest in the stock should happen. As a retail investor, I am not willing to touch this stock with a barge pole (obviously, I am just one of the market participant and do not represent the entire market opinion). Coming to institutional buying, when the stock has hit peak levels (1000+), there was only DSP and not many mutual funds were interested in the story. Now after this whole saga, I could hardly imagine an institutional investor coming out and putting his neck on the block to buyback the victim story of the promoter (and that too in the current market carnage, where many other quality stocks are on sale). Cemetery of such failed /to be revived stories are studded with tall tombstones (Opto, Shilpi cables and many more). I may be completely wrong and would be more than happy to see such a revival story claw back for once.
Disc: no investments in the stock. Not a recommendation. Pls do your own due diligence.
Let me bring a case of monopoly & how it works in tech industry. Nokia & Wipro developed a specialised software called Nitat (not sure about the spelling as the Engineer who joined in Italy told me) for mobile networks, which was also used by Alcatel. So, Alcatel in Italy wanted an Engineer for some service and support for the program. They raised a tender and Wipro being the only one to have such engineers bet at Euro 60K plus per month but another small company bid at about 35K and they got it. Then they went into overdrive mode to find an Engineer and approached some & one of them joined who was paid 150 Euro per day living expenses and monthly salary almost double that of what Wipro was paying. So, there’s nothing that you can say monopoly in sector where things go obsolete so fast & they are not developing cloud they are at best probably deploying or using it.
Adding to your thoughts. People here need to know something more important. If a company outsources some highly niche skills they often pay a hefty amount. I work with contractual engineers and we pay almost 3-4 times of our own Engineers. It’s still economical if we can hire those people make them work only 3-4 months in year in their specialized area and rest of the time sitting or supporting. Also, I am not talking about Salary but per hour cost between the two, which includes overhead. Yes, I do all these costing and analysis.
